Over 2Q20, Beyond Meat removed $1.5 million (1% of revenue) in other expenses when calculating adjusted EBITDA. As of 2020, the Beyond Meat company sells: Cookout Classic (10 plant-based burgers). Heres a high-quality portfolio to beat the market, with over 100% return since 2016, versus 55% for the S&P 500. This assumption is highly unlikely but allows us to create best-case scenarios that demonstrate how high expectations embedded in the current valuation are. Though BYNDs margins remained negative at close to -13% in 2020 (due to the impact of the pandemic), the companys operations are expected to improve and turn profitable in 2022, with projected margins of 3%. Nonetheless, Beyond Meat's earnings press release observed that the value packs, which hit grocery stores only in the last two weeks of the quarter, were responsible for 16 percentage points of volume growth for the entire period. Such high spending is not only unsustainable, but it also means Beyond Meats product must be more expensive than competitors products for the firm to turn a profit. Beyond Meat is a Los Angeles-based producer of plant-based meat substitutes, including vegan versions of burgers and sausages. This is the first time a vegan meat alternative has been merchandised in the meat department at Whole Foods Market.After that Beyond Meatstarted calling itself:the worldsfirst plant-based burger sold in the meat case of U.S. grocery stores.. This allows consumers to make their own informed decision. Concentrating on the health market, they were able to target a broad range of people seeking a better meat option than real meat. With such high expectations, nearly any negative news could place Beyond Meats future earnings in doubt and cause shares to fall. In 2021 Beyond Meats revenue increased by14.2%to reach $464.7 million. Beyond Meat Inc stock (NASDAQ: BYND), a leading-edge food company that produces meat directly from plants an innovation that provides taste and texture of animal-based meat products along with nutritional benefits of plant-based products has seen its stock rise by over 160% from the lows seen in March 2020. Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme. By paying attention to all the details of a real burger the taste, texture, smell, feel, and consistency Beyond Meat has been able to break into a target audience that had yet to be cracked: mainstream consumers interested in healthier forms of meat. Performance goals for cash bonuses could be determined by achievement of GAAP or non-GAAP financial measures and may be adjusted by the compensation committee for any reason. While Beyond Meats stock performance is attractive to many momentum traders, investors with fiduciary responsibilities should consider the deteriorating fundamentals, weak prospects to compete at the scale of its competition, and the unrealistic increase in profits implied by the current valuation. Before the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, Beyond Meat's "go-to-market" strategy -- its plan for marketing and promoting its brand, coupled with its framework for product distribution -- relied heavily on foodservice penetration. By Christopher Lombardo. Recent Improvement in Profitability Was Short-Lived. The company's vision is for consumers to enjoy a meat-like taste and texture in their favourite dishes while avoiding the many chemicals used in processed meat and reducing the number of animals killed every year. While many consumers are not willing to pay an average of $3 more a pound for a. You can see all the adjustments made to Beyond Meats balance sheethere. About 70% of the global population is cutting down its meat consumption. Published May 20, 2021. . Beyond Meat constantly reinvests their earnings in further research and development, as well as in marketing, and in scaling up production and distribution. See Figure 8 for details. This is one of the biggest first-day pop-ups in recent history. Data by YCharts Kellogg ( K ) and Conagra ( CAG ) are already big established brands, that . In the second quarter, U.S. retail sales (mostly through grocery channels) almost tripled to $90 million, while foodservice sales in the U.S. plunged by 61% to $6.5 million. Buy These 2 Stocks in 2023 and Hold for the Next Decade, 2 Growth Stocks to Buy Before the Big Bull Rally, Join Over Half a Million Premium Members And Get More In-Depth Stock Guidance and Research, Copyright, Trademark and Patent Information. Case in point, revenue grew 239% YoY in 2019, 141% YoY in 1Q20, and 69% YoY in 2Q20. With sharp growth in revenues, margins have increased from -89% in 2017 to -9.4% over the last twelve months. This scenario represents the minimum level of performance required not to destroy value. Beyond Meat Inc stock (NASDAQ: BYND), a leading-edge food company that produces meat directly from plants - an innovation that provides taste and texture of animal-based meat products along. This is, in fact, after BYND partnered with Starbucks, Yum Brands, and Sinodis. Looking ahead to 2021, consensus earnings estimates are a much higher $0.47/share. Since its high-flying IPO at $46, this stock has soared to $135. It began trading at $25/share on the Nasdaq stock exchange and ended the day at $65.75. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services. While there are numerous brands that have popped up over the years whove thrown their metaphorical hats into the meat alternatives ring such as Impossible Foods and Quorn Beyond Meat is still one of the most successful and well-known. But for a young organization that wants to leapfrog rivals in gaining plant-based mindshare, the shift isn't illogical, and it may result in a durable competitive advantage. By Tricia McKinnon. Its stock value gained 163% on the day of its stock introduction. Conference: 2021 3rd International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural . Option grants and RSUs directly align executives interests with the price of the companys shares and not necessarily with creating shareholder value. Well, when Beyond Meat chose to switch suppliers, they allegedly shared details of Don Lees manufacturing process which Don Lee saw as a breach of contract. The company has a culture of accountability among its employees: they are all responsible for driving up performances by making suggestions, pointing out what is not working. There are countless advertisements with men barbequing burgers or hanging out with their friends as they bond over their favourite protein, read meat. last yearwhere it will: develop, produce and market snacks and beverages made from plant-based protein bringing together Beyond Meats innovation expertise with PepsiCos marketing and commercial capabilities. PepsiCo is known for its marketing prowess and just working with PepsiCo will expand Beyond Meats reach. While Beyond Meats SG&A (which includes marketing and advertising expenses) represents a large percentage of the firms TTM revenue, the firms total dollars spent on SG&A pales in comparison to larger competitors. Figure 9: BYND Has Large Downside Risk: DCF Valuation Scenario. Critical Details Found in Financial Filings by My Firms Robo-Analyst Technology. our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. The key variables are the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and ROIC for assessing different hurdle rates for a deal to create value. You can find Beyond Meat in many places from small restaurants to national chains but what really accelerated its growth in the beginning was its partnership with Whole Foods. They entered the restaurant market, and are currently sold to plant-based and mainstream restaurants. According to the company, this package of 10 plant-based patties reduces the price of its burgers from nearly twice that of conventional burgers to a 20% premium. For example, without any existing shelf space, and only recently announcing an e-commerce platform, Beyond Meat must spend more on not only convincing consumers to try their products, but also on retailers to display their products. Expand the definition of your target market. For example, Tyson Food, one of the biggest and earliest investors in Beyond Meat, which had a 5% stake in 2016 exited in 2019. With these headwinds Beyond Meat had to convince meat lovers that its products passed the test. In this scenario, Beyond Meat grows NOPAT by 36% compounded annually over the next decade and the stock is worth just $44/share a 67% downside to the current price. Plant based burgers are not new but Beyond Meat has been able to capture more of the . Below are specifics on the adjustments I make based on Robo-Analyst findings in Beyond Meats 10-Q and 10-K: Income Statement: I made $33 million of adjustments, with a net effect of removing $21 million innon-operating income(5% of revenue). Heres a quick summary for noise traders when analyzing BYND: Executive Compensation Adds Additional Risk. Eating meat is associated with strength and power while a plant based diet is not, at least not for now. KFC and Beyond Meat are partnering with YouTube star and influencer Liza Koshy to help reveal the debut. illustration, packages of Beyond Meat "The Beyond Burger" sit in a refrigerator, June 13, 2019 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. this also includes knowledge of every product that comes in contact with your body on a daily basis. Economic earnings, which account for the unusual items on the income statement and . Also, seeing that a lot of slaughter houses will absolutely not let anyone come see the inside conditions that animals are facing. Plant-based meat alternatives are on the rise and not just with vegans. Figure 6: Beyond Meats Adjusted EBITDA Misleads on Profitability, BYND Adjusted EBITDA Misleads On Profitability, Doing the Math: Valuation Implies Significant Disruption of the Entire Meat Industry. Beyond Meat might be the pioneer in this segment, but now it faces fierce competition. Youre reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fools Premium Investing Services. Beyond Meat will face difficulty maintaining an innovative edge over its peers, who already spend much more on research and development (R&D). This pivot on management's part is undergirded by a continuing commitment to building out manufacturing and distribution capacity -- even in the middle of a pandemic, Beyond Meat more than tripled its capital expenditures in the second quarter against the prior year, to $26 million. Also, because of technology, people are becoming more and more informed about problems with big brands and the cancerous chemicals used in products for decades. Success of any of Beyond Meats competitors could also further threaten future profit growth for Beyond Meat. However, it hasnt always been smooth sailing for Beyond Meat in March 2019, Don Lee Farms filed a civil suit against its former business partner. Instead, they persevered. However, the poultry producer exited earlier this year . Therefore, the future will be bright, but they need to continuously gain market share by introducing new products and innovation within the plant-based space. There are limits on how much Kraft Heinz should pay for Beyond Meat to earn a proper return, given the NOPAT or free cash flows being acquired. As of December 31, 2020, Beyond Meat had products available at approximately 122,000 retail and foodservice outlets in over 80 countries worldwide. Further, consensus estimates for Beyond Meats 2020 earnings are now $0.07/share. Plants come directly from the sun and reap the energy created from the sun. I would prefer Beyond Meat align executives interests with shareholders interests and link executive compensation with improving ROIC, which isdirectly correlated with creating shareholder value. Per Figure 6, Beyond Meats TTM adjusted EBITDA of $45 million is well above core earnings of $4 million. This would make growth in Beyond Meats stock price a real possibility in the next two years, taking its stock price to $200. Many people can not even tell the difference between real meat and Beyond Meat. Beyond Meat was one of the most successful IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) of 2019. Plant based burgers are not new but Beyond Meat has been able to capture more of the mainstream market. Many undercover operations are conducted to get footage and investigate what is really going on inside the slaughter houses. June 4, 2021 . Previously, people were limited to information they see on television which is in the best interests of companies that can afford those ad campaigns. Plant-based burgers have existed for decades before Beyond Meat. Figure 2: Beyond Meats Profitability vs. Now, information and videos are easily assessable to people of all ages to make a truly informed decision on healthy options such as plan-based meat. While I think a plethora of competitors have already developed a competing product, its plausible that a competitor could decide to buy Beyond Meat rather than continue building its own plant-based protein brand. Devault, PA Operations - DEPA Production On-site. I conservatively assume that Kraft Heinz can grow Beyond Meats revenue and NOPAT without spending any working capital or fixed assets beyond the original purchase price. Founder and Tech Inventor at Princess Technologies. Beyond Meat entered into a partnership with PepsiCo. If yes (which is the most common case), you can sell them to way more people and have an even greater impact. Jurgens brings over 20 years of experience with a proven record of growing sales and profit through strategy, branding, marketing, operational excellence and innovative approaches. And this failure didnt break them for a few reasons most importantly, because they already had new products in the works. . Weve previously shown how linking executive compensation to faulty metrics such asadjusted EBITDAcan lead to the destruction of shareholder value. The coronavirus pandemic put a halt to the companys fast-growing revenues as shutting down of restaurants due to the lockdown significantly affected the companys restaurant and foodservice business, which was the fastest growing segment for BYND until 2019. Beyond Meats successes have inspired the giants to create new categories. At the end of 2Q20, Beyond Meat had $222 million of cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet. Therefore, they have a lot of time and competitive advantage before others to create the most well-known category before all other competitors. Full Year 2020 Financial Highlights1. In this scenario, Beyond Meat would earn ~$12.5 billion (slightly more thanMarketsandMarkets2019 estimated global plant-based meat market size of $12.1 billion) in revenue in 2031, compared to $401 million TTM. Highlighted by Beyond Meat 's stunning public debutwhich recorded a jaw-dropping 163% gain in its first daythe vegetarian alternatives category of foodtech is blowing up. See all adjustments to Beyond Meats valuationhere. Nowadays, certain celebrities do more than advertise for the brand, some have become ambassadors for Beyond Meat, such as Byrie Irving, from the Boston Celtics. They have sharply improved from -93.3% in 2016 to -4.2% in 2019. Combine revenue growth with the fact that Beyond Meats net income margins (net income, or profits after all expenses and taxes, calculated as a percent of revenues) are on an improving trajectory. What kind of external factors/changes do you think may have inspired the birth of Beyond Meat? Its an era of growth for the still young start-up. Figure 10: Implied Acquisition Prices for Value-Neutral Deal. From the beginning Beyond Meat had a vision for its business that was much broader than any of its predecessors. How did Beyond Meat become the leader it is today? Catalyst: Others Success Could Come at Beyond Meats Expense. Create a great product. Many people do not know that eating meat is not only eating meat, but eating the history in which the meat came from. Placing its hamburgers and breakfast proteins in major quick-service restaurant chains was a logical approach to igniting brand awareness. Furthermore, Don Lee alleged significant concerns about food safety protocols concerning the raw materials that Beyond Meat sent. Since going public, four of its six quarters have shown improvement from. In the first quarter of 2019, Beyond Meat's first as a public company, its gross profit was just 26.8% of net revenue. Find out how 3 brands use customer data to find success! The difference with other plant-based patties is that their name is a synonym of quality for their clients. First, investors need to know that Beyond Meat has a large liability that makes it more expensive than the accounting numbers would initially suggest. Time to Buy? When it comes to social causes brands still need to remember if the product isnt good no social cause, no matter how important can save it. Shares have fallen 10% since news onJune 25, 2020that McDonalds was discontinuing testing of a plant-based burger it dubbed the PLT made with a Beyond Meat patty in several Canadian markets. Beyond Meat Narrows Its Losses. When vegan meat alternatives first started to appear on the market, many people saw them as a fad. Beyond Meats case also shows that a marketing strategy is not fixed: it has to evolve along with the companys positioning. This report helps investors of all types see just how extreme the risk in BYND is based on: Growth Will Slow Down, but Competitors Wont. We visited . Moreover, the existing plant-based burgers had a disastrous reputation, they were ironically said to have as much flavor as the box they were in. Beyond Meat had to position itself as different from them as possible. Beyond Meatis one of them for the plant-based segment. News Corp is a global, diversified media and information services company focused on creating and distributing authoritative and engaging content and other products and services. It began trading at $25/share on the Nasdaq stock exchange and ended the day at $65.75. Given that most plant-based protein products are now aiming for the same goal imitating the taste and texture of meat it stands to reason that as the plant-based protein market matures, differentiation between products will diminish as all products begin to taste more and more like meat. Beyond Meat Inc. is revamping its retail sales strategy to center on five major grocers and hiring a new marketing executive as part of an effort to reinvigorate the plant-based food. As Kroger invests further in its Simple Truth brand, wed expect the firm to allocate more shelf space to its own in-house brands, rather than a competitor such as Beyond Meat. Even in the most optimistic of scenarios, Beyond Meat is worth less than its current share price. Finally, in 2021, Beyond Meat began supplying Taco Bell with plant-based meat products and partnered with PepsiCo to develop and market plant-based drinks and snacks. strategy uncovers and shares the "bold vision, . These expenses, and the need to maintain them to support Beyond Meats already declining growth, illustrate that the firm is not approaching economies of scale anytime soon. Figure 8: Current Valuation Implies Massive Revenue Growth, Significant Downside in a More Realistic Scenario. Measuring Brand Awareness As Told By Marketing Experts, journalists who actually tasted the chicken reported. If Beyond Meat created the healthiest plant based products that dont taste very good then it wouldnt be in business very long. In 2014 they developed their first simulated beef product and expanded their presence from 1,500 to 6,000 stores in the US. Is It Time to Buy? CEO and founder Ethan Brown understood that the target audience was not only vegetarians and vegans, but also flexitarians, or meat-eaters who occasionally want a healthier, high-quality option. Digital Marketing @ Beyond Meat | Award-Winning Author | Driving Success Through Tech, Creativity, & Strategy Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States 631 followers 500+ connections Considering our revenue projections of roughly $1.1 billion and 6% margins, almost $66 million in net income is possible by 2023. Beyond Meat, a producer of plant-based meat substitutes, was founded in 2009 in Los Angeles, California. And by 2020, Beyond Meat had launched an e-commerce site that served as a direct-to-consumers portal, allowing customers to purchase their products individually. As an emerging growth company, Beyond Meat has opted to comply with the executive compensation disclosure rules applicable to smaller reporting companies, which require less stringent disclosures regarding compensation. But just how do these brands fare when it comes to brand awareness and consideration. BYND revenues saw a rise of 36.6% y-o-y in 2020, which was sharply lower than historical growth rates. The redistribution of cash flow to its investors is a challenge. In 2019, they partnered up with Dunkin Donuts to supply their Meatless Sausage for the breakfast chains sandwiches nationwide. Founded in 1993 by brothers Tom and David Gardner, The Motley Fool helps millions of people attain financial freedom through our website, podcasts, books, newspaper column, radio show, and premium investing services. Beyond Meat had originally been sold in retail shops across the USA, then worldwide. Learn More. Beyond Meat Announces New Executive Leadership Appointments to Accelerate and Support the Company's Vision for Strategic Growth. This vision can be found throughout Beyond Meats marketing collateral. But thats what BYNDs investors are betting will not happen! Competitors. This year also saw Beyond Meat join forces with Mcdonalds to develop their McPlant option. The emphasis on the grocery channel will now almost certainly evolve into a long-term focal point for Beyond Meat. Beyond Meat was the first company to sell plant-based burgers in grocery stores meat sections. If, however, McDonalds chooses to not continue on with the PLT or finds another supplier for its plant-based protein items, BYND could fall even further. Even with that success, Brown continues to think big . Plus, they created a new category by being one of the first to do it and do it right. Made from "soy powder, gluten-free flour, carrot fiber and other ingredients", they used a food extrusion machine to create a chicken-like texture. Beyond Meat has earned a premium name thanks to its marketing strategies, but this premium is too much. And if youre looking to follow in this impressive brands footsteps, keep our above tips in mind and consider adding brand tracking software to your lineup because, without insight into how consumers feel about your brand, you wont know where to grow next. Between 2013-2016, Beyond Meat was funded by the likes of Tyson Foods, Bill Gates, and the Humane Society and by 2018, theyd raised $72 million in venture financing. But what if youre looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Expired Meat: https://youtu.be/ZxCT_D6HBd8, https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/09/14/competition-will-eat-beyond-meat-alive/#9d646992946b, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/whole-foods-ceo-john-mackey-plant-based-meat-not-good-for-your-health.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/14/beyond-meat-is-launching-meat-free-meatballs-in-grocery-stores.html, Female Entrepreneur. While vegans and vegetarians are less picky when it comes to whether or not meat substitutes really taste and feel like meat, regular meat-eaters are much more tricky to convince. Finally, innovation is another key element of success for Beyond Meat: if they are the leaders, lets not forget that it is also because their products are great, packed with plant-based proteins. They clearly prioritize innovation. However, its reasonable to assume that as Beyond Meats business gains scale and the company expands aggressively, it can boost margins to the levels of Tyson Foods in the next few years, so we estimate roughly 6% margins by 2023. This adjustment represents 7% of Beyond Meats market cap. The following table, covering Q2 2020, shows how drastically this dynamic has changed, as management has leaned into winning customers at the grocery shelf during a near-cessation in dining-out activities: Beyond Meat is now incentivizing potential retail customers to try its products via a limited-time offering it dubs the "Cookout Classic" burger value pack. Letting go of your vision and plans is hard, but if its the right thing to do, you have to be willing to pivot. There have been many stories of grocery story employees getting told by their bosses to take the expired meat and mix it with regular meat and put it back out there on the shelf. There are several lessons to be learned from Beyond Meats story. Beyond Meat, which went public in the spring of 2019 and whose shares have fallen 16 percent this year, said it had completed a comprehensive greenhouse gas analysis that would be released in. Eat What You Love Comprised of companies with strong revenue growth, healthy profits, lots of cash, and low risk, it has outperformed the broader market year after year, consistently. Beyond Meat was one of the most successful IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) of 2019. Although its products are plant based Beyond Meats marketing does not explicitly call that out. The organizational goals have to be settled and explained. Asit Sharma has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. word of mouth. BEYOND MEAT ANNOUNCES NEW . Stage of Market Lifestyle- The stage of the market lifestyle will influence the company on a few different categories. Heres a post fromBeyond Meats Facebook page: There is no mention at all that the Even-Better Beyond Burger is plant based. However, this trend is expected to reverse in the short term and the company will once again get on its fast growth track and there are multiple trends that support this growth outlook. Along with continued marketing investment, the plant-based company strikes partnerships with McDonald's and Yum! Per Figure 4, Beyond Meats operating expenses as a percent of revenue have actually increased over the past twelve months from 97% in 2Q19 to 107% in 2Q20. If youre always innovating and looking towards the future, youll rarely be caught off guard. This is very rare: imagine if menus displayed all the product brands they use to cook the dishes you eat. Still, it's clear that Brown's idea has caught on: The 10-year old company went public earlier this month at a $1.5 billion valuation. Furthermore, Beyond Meat has a history of significant free cash flow (FCF) burn that is unlikely to change anytime soon. People are perfectly happy eating vegan food as long as they dont know thats what theyre doing,saysCarol J. Adams, author ofThe Sexual Politics of Meat. According to the Partners In Leadership Happiness at Work survey, when employees are happier at work, 85% take more initiative. Dont be afraid to really study the competition and pay attention to all the little details that have made them successful. Another key marketing vehicle for the company is its partnerships with big brands likeMcDonalds, KFCand Pizza Hut. However, the fundamentals reveal this stock is more style than substance. Are they only for vegans? By shifting from animal-based meat to plant-based meat, we can positively impact four growing global issues: human health, climate change, constraints on natural resources and animal welfare. Koshy has 29.5 million followers on TikTok and 17.5 million fans on YouTube. As the industry becomes more commoditized, economies of scale will be even more important for firms seeking profitability, which doesnt bode well for smaller firms such as Beyond Meat. Do you like this content? In 2020, they even signed a deal to open another production facility in Shanghai! In the second scenario, I use 61% growth (2020 consensus estimate) for all years to illustrate a best-case scenario where I assume Beyond Meat could grow revenue faster within the larger distribution network, resources, and customer base of Kraft Heinz. (Photo by Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images), BYND Operating Expense As Of Revenue Beyond Meat, BYND Current Valuation Implies Massive Revenue, BYND Implied Acquisition Prices For Value Neutral, BYND Implied Acquisition Prices For Value, See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario, directly correlated with creating shareholder value, The lack of competitive advantages that nearly all competitors possess, Doing the math: stock price implies huge increase in revenue/profits, Incogmeato by Morningstar Farms, owned by Kellogg Co. (K), Simply Plant-Based Meatless Burger, a SYSCO Corp. (SYY) exclusive product, Simple Truth plant-based meat, owned by The Kroger Co. (KR), Sweet Earth Brand, owned by Nestle (NSRGY), Happy Little Plants, owned by Hormel (HRL), Lightlife Foods, owned by Maple Leaf Foods, Shelf space large amounts of space, which can be very difficult to acquire, especially from firms like Kroger who directly control shelf space allocation, Marketing and advertising capacity existing businesses generate lots of cash flow that enables these firms to spend much more on marketing and advertising than Beyond Meat, Strong brand decades-long relationships with consumers across multiple brands that engender the trust that enables quicker adoption of newer products, Valuation implies massive improvement in profitability with sustained revenue growth rates, Domini Sustainable Solutions Fund (LIFEX) 3.4% allocation and unattractive rating. Its stock value gained 163% on the day of its stock introduction. Low margins in an increasingly competitive industry leave Beyond Meat with less flexibility to compete on price or invest in marketing and R&D. This wasn't a cheap decision -- Beyond Meat incurred a charge of nearly $6 million to repack and reroute this inventory in response to consumer demand. DOI: 10.2991/assehr.k.211209.003. Prior to that Mr. Oghoghomeh served as Head of Recruitment Marketing - West Zone for Amazon, an eCommerce company from 2019 to 2021. Focus Strategy- Beyond Meats strategy was to focus on creating meat that isnt actually meat, but tastes just like the real thing to replace meat in peoples diets.
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